Friday, January 04, 2008

Color me surprised

I knew Obama might win, but I sure didn't expect him to win by such a large margin.

But hey! My guy came in second (barely)!
Way to go, buddy!

Meanwhile, Clinton's in third and looking a little depressed:

Things are going to get interesting now, I think. I'm heartened by Edwards' strong showing; I was afraid he'd get waxed. That honor, however, must go to Rudy Jewels, who was soundly beaten by Fuckabee, Mittens, The Living Corpse, Walnuts McCain, and RON FUCKING PAUL! I mean, how pathetic is that!?

Here are the dem results, courtesy of The Carpetbagger Report:
1. Obama — 38%
2. Edwards — 30%
3. Clinton — 29%
4. Richardson — 2%
5. Biden — 0.9%
6. Dodd — 0.02%

And the Republicans:
1. Huckabee — 34%
2. Romney — 25%
3. Thompson — 13.3%
4. McCain — 13.1%
5. Paul — 10%
6. Giuliani — 3%

Wow. I think it goes to show that Rudy's standing in this race has been a completely media-manufactured illusion all along. Whatever attention was paid to him resulted solely from his non-stop screaming of "9/11." When the voters came out, however, we saw what the people really think, and that's that Rudy is irrelevant.

I can hardly believe Mr. Coma came in third, though--the guy's been asleep since his last filming session of Law & Order! Which begs the question: how fucking NUTS are those repubs in Iowa? Fuckabee doesn't know his foreign policy from a pheasant's ass, yet his "I'm with Jesus and Walker TX Ranger" act got him a nine-point victory over Mittens, who poured a ton of money into that state AND can probably tell you where Pakistan is on the map. Poor Mittens. Somehow, though, I doubt that "crucifix on my shoulder" routine will translate well in the northeast.

And that's really the question now, isn't it? What will happen in New Hampshire and beyond? I know there are a lot of white evangelicals there, but I doubt the state will buy into the Jesus card quite as completely as Iowa did.

And what about Obama? Everything will depend on whether he can repeat this drubbing of the competition. If he doesn't, look for him to go back to second- (or even third-) place status.

Hillary may be down, but if anything, this defeat will only make her refocus her efforts, cut out any and all hijinks (see: "Obama did drugs!"), and get really fecking SERIOUS. This is just the first caucus; it's a looong way to November. And remember--Bill Clinton wasn't called The Comeback Kid for nothing. Check out the results from the 1992 Iowa dem caucus (courtesy of the Iowa Caucus web site:
1. Tom Harkin 76%
2. Paul Tsongas 4%
3. Bill Clinton 3%
4. Bob Kerrey 2%
5. Jerry Brown 2%

OUCH! Talk about getting drilled! So you know that Hillary can take this; she's been in this position before (albeit as wife and supporter, but still), even worse. The Clintons will probably hole up, recharge, and come out fighting. I just hope she doesn't do anything stupid--she needs to stick to the issues, leave the negative shit out, and DAZZLE. Look for Bill to hit the campaign trail even harder than he has been. You just know he wants back into the White House, and he seems like the kind of guy who does not take "no" for an answer. (okay, okay, put all those snarky skirt-chaser remarks away! this is serious political analysis, man! *snicker*)

As for Edwards, he'll need to use this as a jumping-off point -- raise more money, hit the road hard in the northeast, and keep walking the walk. My fingers are crossed for him.

14 comments:

Mary Ellen said...

What surprises me, dguzman, is Fred Thompson's showing. The guy has barely campaigned and puts little money into his campaign. Most of the time,you have to wonder if he's awake. I wonder how hard the GOP pushed to get the vote out for him. They hate Huckapoo and they would like nothing better than dead head Fred to take the reigns. They need another puppet in the office, and he fits the bill.

Keep an eye on that guy...something is awful fishy when it comes to him coming in with 19% of the vote.

Randal Graves said...

Man, I hope Edwards comes out swinging. Obama just strikes me as too nice, too conciliatory. All that'll get us is another thug Republican outfit eventually.

Not burying Nixon gave us Reagan. Not burying Reagan gave us Dubya. I want people to LOATHE corporate Republican gooperism to where they see an R, they shudder.

dguzman said...

ME--that's scary, especially because it's so possible.

Randal--well put. That's what needs to happen. We need to make "republican" a true insult, like they try to do with "liberal."

Whiskeymarie said...

The results in Iowa are interesting, for sure. I'm also hoping that this is just an early scare. Romney is pretty f**king scary, but Huckabee is frightening in a way that only a greasy, homophobic, misogynistic dumbass can be.
It was great to see Edwards pull the numbers he did.

Mary Ellen said...

It was good to see Edwards on Keith Olbermann's show this evening! He even gave John the chance to explain the differences between his idea of change and Obama's idea of change. I wish all interviews had intelligent questions like Keith's show.

(how cute, my word verification spells ouchy!) :-)

Jen Clark said...

It's interesting that even though Rudy was stone-cold dead last last night, and Ron Paul came in 5th with 10%, Ron Paul is still being excluded from the Fox News Republican debate.

Is it even possible to argue that that is logical? I didn't think it was possible for the Fox bias to be much more obvious. They never fail to surprise me with how low they'll go.

LET'S TALK said...

The cards are stack for Obama to move in first or second all through the polls, up to California. Once that happens he might be the nominee for the Democratic party.

Republicnas are playing a crazy game and helping with this surge for Obama and it just might backfire on them.

Distributorcap said...

Hillary may be down, but if anything, this defeat will only make her refocus her efforts, cut out any and all hijinks

the thing about a LONG campaign is that there is nothing to refocus -- Hillary has done everything short of talking to Lee Harvey Oswald to stop the Obama train -- and it aint working -- she is TOAST
she is over, her support was never really there ---

people told the pollsters they wanted her, when they wanted bill. when they go to vote in NH, they aint voting for her

money cant buy support -- it buys a lot of ads and a lot of people to help. but it doesnt buy love of hillary

Matty Boy said...

As I have said before, I'll gladly vote for anyone the Dems put up other than Hillary, and I will hold my nose and vote for her over any warm body the Repubs put up.

Actually, instead of holding my nose, I'll probably renew my passport and take a more serious look at teaching opportunities in Canada and New Zealand.

Dr. Monkey Von Monkerstein said...

The real test is on the multi state primary days. I agree Rudy is a non starter. I think Hillary is on the wrong side of all this as well. People are sick of the Bushes and the Clintons. I'd be comfortable voting for and supporting Edwards or Obama, but not Hillary. Never in a million years Hillary.

Michelle Hix said...

Getting exciting isn't it?

Mauigirl said...

Great analysis of the results. It should be an interesting campaign now.

I like the idea of making "republican" an insult! I got so annoyed the way they made "liberal" a bad word.

Rudy is so over.

Earl Cootie said...

I'd like to see a national primary day. The stark differences between early caucuses and primaries and the later ones seems to be lessening. I read of so many Dems who say, "I don't care who wins, as long as s/he can beat the Republicans." And while I can sympathize with that sentiment, some people tend to be allowing the polling and earlier primary results to choose their candidate for them.

dguzman said...

I agree that Hillary's in real trouble. I guess I bought into that "inevitability" thing the MSM was pushing for so long. But as I said, nothing means anything until the people fill out their ballots. I'll happily vote for Obama or Edwards, and the female in me will semi-happily vote for Hillary.

Jen--welcome. Are you kidding me? They're not letting Paul in, but Roody is still in with his shitty showing? What a bunch of hypocritical a-holes. But then, that's in Fox "News"'s charter, isn't it? To be hypocritical assholes?